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Source: http://www.doksinet Statistics Denmark Bente Dyrberg E-mail: bdy@dst.dk June 2002 BDY/ Short-Term Economic Indicators in Denmark 1. Introduction Statistics Denmark has a long tradition of using administrative registers when ever possible. For example, two quarterly fundamental indicators based on administrative registers (for almost all sectors) are: Turnover (based on VAT) Employment (based on Labour Market Supplementary Pension Scheme) From June 2002 there will also be a monthly preliminary indicator for turnover available two months after the reference period. In the present situation there is a strong political pressure to reduce response burden and Statistics Denmark has to continue this line of exploiting administrative sources. Another important reason for this is that Statistics Denmark is at present facing severe budget problems. It is however well known that there is a pressure from Eurostat and the European Central Bank, asking for quicker and more comprehensive

short-term indicators. In the case of Denmark this will not be completely possible with the existing sources, and the challenge is how we can deliver such data without launching new costly surveys. 2. The Danish short-term indicators The compilation of Short-Term Indicators has two main purposes, namely − − to show the development of economic phenomena which predict economic conditions in the future to form a basis for the calculation of the quarterly national accounts, both flash estimates and other calculations The indicators can be divided in two groups. Indicators based on tendency surveys in which respondents are asked about their expectations for the future (typically the future three months compared with the previous three months). Surveys/administrative registers based on real data referring to a passed reference period (or a sub-sample of a reference period). For all business statistics the sample frame is the business register. Statistics Denmark currently produces 12

economic indicators. Annex 1 provides broad summary information on each indicator. e:wshort term economic indicators in denmark (2002, 5 oldal).doc Source: http://www.doksinet You can find detailed information on the content of each indicator from Statistics Denmarks homepage (www.dstdk) The corresponding URL for each indicator is given below. You can find information on the figures in the electronic Statbank Denmark (www.statistikbankendk) There is free public access to both sites Indicator Manufacturing Turnover Manufacturing PRODCOM Manufacturing New orders Manufacturing Tendency Survey Investment Tendency Survey Retail Sales Stocks Manufacturing/Wholesale Building permits started/unfinished/finished buildings Construction Tendency Survey Manufacturing production Construction production Services turnover URL-address www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Manufacturing Industry/Industrial sales and orders statistics www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of

content/ Manufacturing Industry/Industrial commodity statistics www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Manufacturing Industry/Industrial sales and orders sta-tistics www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Manufacturing Industry/Tendency survey for manu-facturing industries www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Manufacturing Industry/Investment survey in manu-facturing industries www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Service sector/Retail sales (index) www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Manufacturing Industry/Stock value statistics www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Construction and housing/Construction www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Construction and housing/Construction industry: Tendency survey www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ Manufacturing Industry/Industrial sales and orders sta-tistics www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of

content/ National accounts and balance of payment/Quarterly national accounts www.dstdk/Guide to Statistics/Decletations of content/ General economic statistics/Quarterly VAT statistics In relation to fulfilling the Short-Term Regulation from the EU, Denmark has still not calculated an indicator for New Orders in Construction. This indicator will be developed this autumn on the basis of building permits and the business survey. 3. Response burden For surveys based on questionnaires the samples are stratified to diminish the response burden on small enterprises. The response burden is an important issue and annual calculations of the response burden measured in man-years are published every year. The total burden for all business surveys was 231 man-years in 2001. Our goal is clear: the response burden has to continue to decline in the coming years. That is a challenge to cope with in the light of new external demands By 2003 all business survey samples will be scrutinized with

respect to reducing the size of the sample. Also, the questionnaires will be assessed to exclude any unnecessary questions. At the present time very high priority is given to enable respondents to send data electronically in all surveys. The first questionnaires should be accessible from the website this year. 2 Source: http://www.doksinet 4. Budgets restraints and EU-regulations Another constraint for the future is the budget. From 2002 to 2005 Statistics Denmark has to reduce the staff from around 650 to 450. All unnecessary tasks are cut away. In the business field many EU-regulations are adopted. For the year 2000 Statistics Denmark calculated that 93 % of all questionnaire-based surveys were encompassed by EU-law. For Statistics Denmark in general 74 % of all production is related to EU-law. If new demands are adopted in the EU, extra resources will not automatically be allocated to Statistics Denmark. 5. Future work Statistics Denmark are faced by major challenges in the

future. The question is how to reduce the response burden and still produce quicker and more statistics under severe budget restraints. Many different methods have to be considered Related to this are the central issues of how to implement new modern ways of collecting data and more generally how to improve cooperation with the respondents. 3 Source: http://www.doksinet Annex 1 Short-Term Economic Indicators in Denmark Demand indicators Indicator Freqency Data collection Manufacturing Turnover Monthly Manufacturing Prodcom Quarterly Manufacturing New orders Monthly Manufacturing Tendency Survey Monthly Investment Tendency Survey Retail Sales Twice a year Monthly Stocks Manufacturing/ Wholesale Quarterly Building permits/ building started/unfinished/ffi nished buildings Construction Tendency Survey Quarterly Monthly 4 Responseburden Release time Method/numer/unit Man-years Days Sample 1300 units Kind of Activity (KAU) Cut off /Prodcom 5000 units Kind of

Activity (KAU) Collected together with monthly Manufac. Turnover Sample 500 units Enterprises (KAU) Sample 800 units Sample 3200 units Enterprises Sample 300 man./300 wholes Kind of Activity (KAU) Administrative register 3,9 t+37 11,0 t+65 - t+37 Sample 800 units Enterprises voluntary voluntary t+30 voluntary t+30 2,6 t+ 36/66 0,1 t + 50 - t+50 t+30 Source: http://www.doksinet Output Indicators Indicator Freqency Data collection Manufacturing production Monthly Construction production Quarterly Services turnover Quarterly Method/numer/unit 5 Collected together with monthly Manufact. Turnover (from 2003 a real production index is compiled) Adminstrative register Integrated with calculations in QNA Administrative register Responseburden Release time Manyear Days - t+37 - t+60 - t+90